Energy markets and operating businesses
From US$117 to US$85: oil fell; energy risk did not disappear
Brent’s monthly average fell sharply from April, but crude supply, transport, refining and product availability did not normalise at the same pace.
Establish the price path first
EIA data put Europe Brent at an average US$117.29 per barrel in April 2026, US$107.14 in May, US$85.40 in June and US$83.76 in July. The April-to-June fall was about 27.2%. These are published monthly averages, not live prices.
Supply recovery is only half the story
The IEA estimated that global oil supply rebounded by 4.1 mb/d month on month to 98.8 mb/d in June. North Sea Dated fell by about US$22 month on month to roughly US$68 per barrel. Improved tanker flows, government stock releases and renewed attention to surplus supply all contributed.
Products have their own constraints
The same IEA report described product markets as tight, with crack spreads and refining margins at four-year highs in early July. Crude must be transported, refined, stored and distributed before it becomes usable fuel. A constraint at any link can separate product prices from crude.
Read the family balance sheet, not one ticker
Producers face realised prices, volumes and extraction costs; refiners face feedstock costs, utilisation and product spreads; airlines, logistics, manufacturing and chemicals face actual fuel or input costs. The same oil-price fall can affect their earnings in opposite directions.
Treat forecasts as scenarios, not promises
EIA’s July outlook projected third-quarter Brent at about US$74. G70 treats that as a scenario, not a target. Actual shipping through chokepoints, inventories and product crack spreads are the more useful tests of whether the supply chain has normalised.
Official and primary sources
- U.S. EIA | Europe Brent Spot Price FOB — Monthly (5 Aug 2026)
- International Energy Agency | Oil Market Report — July 2026 (10 Jul 2026)
- U.S. EIA | Short-Term Energy Outlook — July 2026 (7 Jul 2026)
Sources were checked on 11 August 2026. Regulations, policies and market data may subsequently change.