Is Biomedicine the Next Growth Wave? Follow Clinical Milestones, Not Only the Listing Window

Basic facts about Hong Kong market

Chapter 18A, introduced in 2018, allows pre-revenue biotech companies to list if they meet conditions, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing said. By the end of January 2026, 84 biotech companies had gone public, raising more than $17.5 billion in IPOs. This proves that Hong Kong already has the system and investor base to allow unprofitable biotechnology companies to enter the public market.

But these are cumulative platform figures, not the success rate of a single company. A total of 87 companies were listed in Hong Kong in the first half of 2026, which should not be mistakenly written as 87 biotech companies.

Industry judgment should shift from “windows” to “milestones”

Biomedical companies should not be evaluated solely by "how many items are in their R&D pipeline". A more realistic framework for analysis is: What clinical stage is each asset in? What is the next verifiable event? How much cash will you burn before you finish? If the results are not up to par, how much time and other assets will the company have left?

The value of new drugs does not rise linearly. Safety, efficacy, subject recruitment, manufacturing consistency, regulatory interactions and medical payment can all modify risk. Valuing all R&D stages with the same revenue multiple can easily conceal the most critical event risks.

Cash runway is more important than headlines

The company's stated months of cash availability should also include the costs of clinical trial scale-up, manufacturing validation, regulatory submissions and commercialization teams. If the cash is only available until important data is released, the company may need to refinance at its weakest point; if key milestones can be passed, the financing bargaining power may improve.

Authorizing transactions shouldn’t just be based on the headline amount, either. Down payments, development milestones, sales milestones, royalties, territorial rights and clawback provisions have different impacts on cash flow, and the "total potential amount" is usually not realized all at once.

Successful products still go through payment and adoption

Regulatory approval is a major milestone, but it is not a commercial endpoint. Physician adoption, value compared to existing treatments, hospital processes, manufacturing capabilities, payer commitment and patient accessibility all influence the sales curve.

This is why different companies will still have completely different capital returns for the same increasingly popular track. Scientific, regulatory, manufacturing, commercialization and financing capabilities must be placed on the same timeline.

G70 Viewpoint: For family capital, risk budgets should follow milestones

Rather than predicting whether the entire biomedical sector will be the “next trend”, it is better to reevaluate each time only after verifiable milestones. The positions, follow-up investment capabilities, liquidity and impairment provisions of companies that have no income should be written clearly before investing.

The sector as a whole may benefit from improving capital markets, but investment returns are still generated by the few assets that actually cross milestones.

Important note

This article does not constitute investment advice for any biotechnology company, drug or security. Clinical success rates will vary significantly depending on the disease, mechanism, stage, and trial design, and this article does not use a uniform rate in lieu of a case-by-case assessment.