Hong Kong capital-markets data
Hong Kong IPOs: a 67.9% positive first-day rate—and what it does not tell you
Thirty-six of 53 usable new-listing observations closed above the offer price on day one. The 67.9% figure is reproducible event data—not an investor’s probability of profit.
Define the window and sample
The observation window is 11 May to 10 August 2026. Of 53 listings with an offer price and first-day close, 36 rose, three were flat and 14 fell. Defining a positive return as a first-day close above offer price gives 36÷53 = 67.9245%, displayed as 67.9%.
A few large gains lifted the mean
The mean first-day return was 60.8%; the median was 22.5%; the range was -56.9% to +367.9%. The 38.3-point gap between mean and median shows the influence of a small number of very large gains. Neither statistic forecasts the next listing.
Market outcomes are not investor outcomes
The calculation excludes public-offer allocation rates, shares actually allocated, margin interest, platform and trading costs, grey-market trades, execution timing and later performance. The 67.9% figure must not be described as the probability of making money from an IPO subscription.
Three months is not a full cycle
The sample reflects one issuance environment. Sector mix, listing route, free float and risk appetite can change the distribution. HKEX’s newly listed securities page was used only to cross-check events; HKEX did not publish G70’s 67.9% calculation.
Put statistics back inside a risk budget
For family capital, IPOs are better treated as event allocations with explicit limits. Each deal still requires its own work on valuation, liquidity, cornerstone investors, use of proceeds, listing structure and lock-ups. Market statistics are context—not a substitute for due diligence.
Official and primary sources
- ET Net | IPO first-day performance table; snapshot frozen 11 Aug 2026
- HKEX | Newly Listed Securities; event cross-check only
Sources were checked on 11 August 2026. Regulations, policies and market data may subsequently change.